A former college president once said to me that today’s headlines is tomorrow’s fish wrap. There is some truth to that but often headlining events spill over to ensuing years and can have a profound impact on the bodypolitic. One of the weaknesses of mass media is the failure to connect what occurred yesterday with the present.
At the last Republican Party’s presidential debate, the chorus line was that President Obama’s strategy in regards to ISIS was not working. The right wing conventional wisdom was that sterner methods were required to defeat ISIS. All the candidates with the exception of Senator Rand Paul were eager to start World War 111.
The Paris bombing of November, 2015 and the San Bernardino massacre of civilians in December, 2015 changed the presidential conversation to national security issues. ISIS appeared to be achieving its objectives. It had taken control of Ranadi, a major city in the predominant Sunni province of Anbar and had also seized control of Falluja and Musul.
President Obama had tried to calm the waters by indicating that ISIS had recently lost control of 40 percent of its territory. Journalists and pundits were skeptical but the Iraqi forces have been successful in expelling ISIS from Ranadi. Iraqi forces have signified that they will be preparing plans to retake Fulluja and Musul which would negate ISIS having control of territory in Iraq. Such success if achieved before the 2016 Presidential election would blunt the Republican notion that the President’s painfully constructed policy is not working. If Musul and Fulluja fall in the coming months, it would be the vindication of President Obama’s strategy of using American and allied air strikes to pulverize ISIS and using Special Operation forces on a limited basis and the Iraqi forces to liberate Anbar Province.
The situation in Syria is more complex. State power in the case of Syria is under the auspices of Basar al-Assad, an Alawite lording over a 75 percent Sunni population and whose state apparatus has lost its legitimacy. The Sunni uprising has reduced Assad’s control of territory to 30 percent of Syria. Unlike Iraq, the Syrian rebels are highly factionalized. ISIS has sizeable amounts of Syrian territory including Racqua that serves as the capital of the so-called Caliphate.
The talks being held in Vienna has brought Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United States and Russia to the table in an attempt to establish a united front against ISIS. But Assad who has massacred over 250,000 Syrians is a stumbling block for forging a united front against ISIS as the Syrian rebels are demanding the departure of Assad as a pre-requisite for the push to defeat ISIS. Thus far, the Russians are insisting that Assad’s administration must be preserved and his future determined after the defeat of ISIS.
The civil war in Syria is the cause of the 1 million migrants, most Syrians, who have abandoned the Middle East for a better life in Europe. Tens of thousands of Syrian refugees are living in difficult conditions in Jordan and in Turkey. Only 190,000 of the 1 million have really been settled in Europe according to the New York Times.
The rush of migrants to Europe has had a profound impact on European politics. A number of right wing parties in places like Denmark, Hungary and France have widened their appeal to the electorate based on the resentment of voters of the massive influx of migrants. The National Front in France emerged in the first round of regional elections with a larger plurality of votes than the Socialists or the Center Right party. The more established Parties had to submerge their interests to thwart the National Front from gaining traction in the second round of regional elections. What happens in Syria in 2016 will have an ideological impact on European politics.
An event of 2015 that will have an impact on 2016 and beyond is the agreement between the permanent members of Security Council plus Germany and the Iran government. Iran has agreed to shut down its centrifuges and advancing nuclear capability for the lifting of trading sanctions which were instrumental in crippling the Iranian economy. The agreement encompasses 10-15 years and the hope that Iran will abandon permanently the ambition to be a nuclear power. The agreement has not modified Iran’s international behavior as hardliners still exercise much of the decision-making in that Shia theoretic state.
The end of 2015 also saw 195 countries come together in Paris after the carnage of November 13, 2015 to arrive at a consensus in dealing with climate change. The world community has made a commitment to reduce greenhouse gases and to monitor those developments every five years. China and India are heavy pollutants but China has recognized that a movement away from fossil fuel is essential to the wellbeing of the Chinese people.
Much of what is agreed upon is in the form of volunteering compliance but with America in technological vanguard, the transition from a world dependent on fossil fuel should be made less trying.
A beginning in 2015 that should produce concrete movement in 2016 is the reform of the criminal justice system in America. Violent crime began to plummet in the middle of the 1990s and continued for much of the 21st century. The success of abandoning mass incarceration will depend on the continued lowering of the crime rate. There are already examples of states which have been effective avoiding mass incarceration and lowering the crime rate. Other cities like Baltimore and Chicago have seen an uptick in violent crime.
New York State/City is the shining example but for this to work, the federal government will have to ensure that funds are provided to discourage recidivism and to offer opportunities for those trapped in inner cities.
There are hopeful signs for 2016 in the United States and in the world. There is the desperate need for peace in the Middle East and ridding Iraq and Syria of the scourge of ISIS will be a small advance in humanizing a world that is often characterized by a disproportionate amount of barbarism.
